Novo Nordisk

Beyond Blood Sugar: Novo Nordisk's Push to Redefine Obesity

Few European companies have managed to reinvent themselves as effectively as Novo Nordisk. What began over a century ago as a laboratory focused on insulin production has evolved into one of the most influential players in global biotechnology. The Danish company not only dominates the treatment of type 1 diabetes—a complex yet predictable niche—but is now leading a much more ambitious therapeutic revolution: the medicalization of obesity.

The turning point has been the development of GLP-1-based drugs, a therapeutic class with dual effects on glycemic regulation and weight loss. Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus, has redefined clinical standards and positioned Novo Nordisk at the core of one of the most promising (and competitive) markets of the next decade. However, initial investor enthusiasm has recently given way to a more critical phase, marked by the rapid ascent of Eli Lilly and heightened pressure to maintain leadership in innovation.

The question is whether Novo Nordisk's market position is as solid as its track record suggests, or whether this is a thesis with more uncertainties than it appears at first glance. The competitive advantages in insulin (the company's foundational product) are undeniably strong: therapeutic fidelity, high switching costs, regulatory complexity, and well-established industrial barriers. Yet, in the obesity sector, the landscape is newer, and competitive dynamics are still taking shape.

Is Novo Nordisk's dominance in this new market sustainable? What are the implications of patent expirations after 2031? To what extent will patient persistence and physician loyalty mirror what occurred with type 1 diabetes? This publication offers an in-depth analysis of Novo Nordisk's strategic positioning, the genuine barriers within the GLP-1 segment, and key scenarios to consider for the coming years.